India’s ₹4 Lakh Crore+ Defence Push: 114 Rafales & 6 P-75 I Next-Gen Submarines Near Signing
India is moving more than ₹4 lakh crore of major fighter and submarine programmes toward decisions before March 2027. The 114-Rafale deal and Project-75(I) are approaching signature, with both programmes set to reshape India's combat capability and defence-industrial base.
DEFENCE ANALYSIS
Two of India's most significant defence acquisition programmes are moving toward the final stages of negotiation. The proposed acquisition of 114 Rafale fighters for the Indian Air Force and six Project-75(I) conventional submarines for the Indian Navy together represent an investment of more than ₹4 lakh crore.
The Rafale programme is estimated at around ₹3.25 lakh crore, while Project-75(I) is expected to be worth roughly ₹80,000 crore or more. Both programmes have also moved beyond being simple equipment purchases, with manufacturing, technology transfer and greater participation by Indian industry forming a significant part of their respective structures.
The two programmes address very different operational requirements, but both are designed around the same broader objective: adding advanced combat capability while creating domestic capacity to support and progressively build that capability in India.
114 Rafales: From French Deliveries to Indian Production
The proposed 114-aircraft Rafale acquisition will be substantially different from India's 2016 purchase of 36 Rafales. Instead of a purely fly-away acquisition, the programme is being pursued under a Buy-and-Make model, with only 18 aircraft planned to be supplied directly from France and the remaining 96 manufactured in India.
The first 18 French-built aircraft are expected to begin arriving around 2030, assuming the contract is concluded in the current procurement window. Indian production would follow, with the first Indian-built Rafales expected around 2031–32. The proposed Indian Final Assembly Line is planned for a capacity of approximately 24 aircraft per year, allowing production to accelerate once the facility reaches its planned output.
The industrial plan would make India the first country outside France to establish a Rafale final assembly line. Indian companies are expected to participate across the supply chain, while Dassault's proposed industrial roadmap also involves localisation of aircraft structures and other components. Safran has separately indicated its readiness to establish an engine assembly line in India and source components from Indian suppliers.
Indigenous Weapons Could Be the More Important Rafale Feature
One of the most significant aspects of the new Rafale programme is not simply how much of the aircraft will be manufactured in India, but how much freedom India will have to integrate its own weapons onto it.
India has been seeking an Interface Control Document, or ICD, as part of the programme. Such an arrangement would define the technical interfaces required for an indigenous weapon to communicate with the aircraft and its mission systems. The objective is to enable Indian weapons integration without requiring France to hand over the complete source code of the Rafale. Recent reporting indicates that France has shown flexibility on finding a mechanism for this requirement.
This could allow the IAF to progressively integrate weapons such as the Astra family and other indigenous air-launched weapons onto the Rafale. India already has experience integrating indigenous weapons with the Rafale Marine programme, with the 2025 Navy contract explicitly including technology transfer for indigenous weapons integration in India.
That distinction is important. Weapon integration does not mean India receives the Rafale's source code or complete control over its underlying software architecture. Instead, the focus is on obtaining sufficient technical information at the interfaces to allow Indian weapons to be incorporated into the aircraft. If implemented as planned, this would give India greater freedom to evolve the Rafale's weapons package over its service life rather than remaining permanently tied to a fixed foreign weapons configuration.
From Assembly to Increasing Indigenous Content
The Indian Rafale programme is also expected to progressively increase domestic content. Earlier reporting has indicated that indigenous content could eventually reach around 60 percent, although the exact figure and its contractual milestones remain subject to final negotiations.
The significance is therefore broader than assembling completed aircraft in India. The programme is expected to involve Indian manufacture of major structures and components, a domestic supply chain, maintenance and overhaul capabilities, and eventually greater participation in the aircraft's production ecosystem.
If sustained at the proposed production rate, the Indian line could become a major long-term aerospace manufacturing facility rather than a one-off assembly project. That becomes particularly relevant when considering the future evolution of the Rafale itself.
Could Rafale F5 Enter the Later Batches?
France is already developing the Rafale F5, the next major evolution of the fighter. The F5 programme is expected to introduce substantial changes to the aircraft's sensors, electronic warfare architecture, networking and interaction with unmanned combat aircraft, with the new standard being developed for the 2030s.
India has not formally announced that it will procure Rafale F5. However, the long production timeline of the 114-aircraft programme creates an interesting possibility: if Indian Rafale production is still active when F5 becomes available, later aircraft could potentially incorporate F5-era capabilities or an F5-derived configuration.
That would give the Indian production line a pathway to evolve with the French programme rather than locking the entire 114-aircraft fleet into the configuration available at the beginning of production.
What 114 Rafales Add to the IAF
India currently operates 36 Rafales, while the Navy is acquiring another 26 Rafale Marine aircraft for carrier operations. The additional 114 IAF aircraft would therefore create a much larger common Rafale ecosystem across India's air and maritime forces.
The proposed acquisition would amount to roughly six additional fighter squadrons, significantly expanding the number of Rafales available to the IAF while retaining commonality in training, maintenance, weapons and logistics with the existing fleet.
More importantly, the programme would combine an established combat aircraft with a domestic manufacturing base and a pathway for indigenous weapon integration. That combination is likely to matter as much over the aircraft's decades-long service life as the initial number of aircraft itself.
Project-75(I): India’s Next Conventional Submarine
Under Project-75(I), India plans to acquire six new-generation conventional attack submarines with Air Independent Propulsion. The programme is being pursued through Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MDL) in partnership with Germany's thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS). Cost negotiations were concluded in early 2026, with the programme expected to move toward final approval and contract signing.
The programme is expected to cost around $9 billion or more, depending on the final contract structure. The first submarine is currently projected for delivery around 2033, making P-75(I) a long-term addition to India's underwater fleet rather than an immediate solution to the submarine shortage.
The submarines will be built in India under the Strategic Partnership framework, with technology and design transfer intended to strengthen India's ability to manufacture and eventually develop advanced conventional submarines domestically. The original RFP specifically called for fuel-cell-based AIP, advanced torpedoes, modern missiles and advanced countermeasure systems.
A Larger Hull, AIP and a Heavier Weapons Load
The Indian P-75(I) will not simply be a standard German Type 214 transferred to Indian production. The submarine is expected to be a larger Indian configuration, approaching 3,000 tonnes, with modifications to accommodate India's endurance, weapons and operational requirements.
Its AIP system will use polymer-electrolyte-membrane hydrogen fuel-cell technology. AIP allows the submarine to remain submerged for extended periods without frequently surfacing or relying solely on battery power. It is primarily intended for low-speed submerged endurance, rather than providing high-speed propulsion.
The submarine is expected to retain 533 mm torpedo tubes, with reported requirements including around 18 heavyweight torpedoes and at least 12 anti-ship/land-attack missiles. These figures reflect a substantially heavier weapons requirement than India's existing Kalvari-class submarines. A vertical-launch missile system has been discussed in connection with future submarine concepts, but it should not be treated as a confirmed P-75(I) feature at this stage.
Kalvari-Class Expansion Will Bridge the Gap
P-75(I) will arrive alongside India's ongoing effort to keep the existing conventional submarine fleet viable. The Navy currently operates six Kalvari-class submarines, derived from the French Scorpene design, with the class displacing around 1,775 tonnes submerged.
India is also considering three additional submarines beyond the original six Kalvaris. This would provide another layer of capacity while P-75(I) progresses through construction and trials.
At the same time, DRDO's indigenous AIP system is being prepared for installation on a Kalvari-class submarine during its mid-life upgrade. The system uses fuel-cell technology and is intended to provide India with practical experience in operating and maintaining an indigenous AIP architecture before it becomes a larger part of the country's future submarine ecosystem.
From P-75(I) to Project-76
The most important outcome of P-75(I) may ultimately extend beyond the six submarines themselves. India has long sought to move from licensed or technology-assisted construction toward indigenous submarine design, and P-75(I) provides an intermediate step between those two stages.
The technology transfer, production experience, design knowledge and industrial ecosystem created through the programme can feed into Project-76, which is planned as India's future indigenous conventional submarine programme. Current planning envisages at least six submarines under Project-76, with substantially higher Indian design and indigenous-content requirements.
That makes P-75(I) more than a fleet-replacement programme. It can serve as the technological and industrial bridge between India's existing Scorpene production experience and a future generation of submarines designed substantially within the country.
Two Programmes, Two Long-Term Industrial Pathways
The Rafale and P-75(I) programmes are built around different technologies and operational requirements, but both extend well beyond the initial acquisition of combat platforms.
For the IAF, the 114 Rafales could establish India's first foreign-designed fighter final assembly line, expand the domestic aerospace supply chain and, critically, create a mechanism for integrating Indian weapons onto a sophisticated foreign combat aircraft. For the Navy, P-75(I) could provide the technology, manufacturing experience and design knowledge required to eventually move toward an indigenous conventional submarine.
The immediate milestones are therefore straightforward: contract conclusion, production infrastructure and the first deliveries. The more consequential question is what India is able to retain after the programmes mature - not just the aircraft and submarines themselves, but the industrial capacity, integration expertise and technical knowledge required to keep developing them.